It’s been a tough autumn for New York’s museums. Wall Street’s September roller coaster ride sent CEO’s, finance committees, and staff leaders back to the drawing board to prepare for what may be lean times in the museum world.

Asked to describe how the state’s 1,500+ museums react to major economic downturns, Anne Ackerson, Museum Association of New York (MANY) director, said “They’re like a bellweather.” In surveying MANY’s member institutions, Ackerson reports belt-tightening going on across the state. And while most organizations are holding their own, they predict that what’s happened so far is the tip of a very big iceberg. Several directors said, “Talk to me in a month.” Others felt they could ride out 2008, it’s next year they are worried about.

Of the two-dozen organizations questioned this week by MANY, six reported their visitation was up, although several attributed it to the popularity of a single exhibit. And several urban museums reported that they are still benefitting from the weak dollar and European travelers. That was the good news. For small to mid-size organizations—some with budgets under $250,000—it doesn’t take much to slip from bad to untenable. Several of MANY’s constituents in Erie and Monroe counties as well as in Manhattan reported delays or possible cuts in funding from state or local sources—in one case by a year. One director who did not want to be identified, wrote, “I received your email as I was composing yet another letter to our county legislature urging their support for our highest recommended funding level in the 2009 budget. I am imagining I’m not alone in this effort.” Another reported that county funding was already down by 5-percent while two New York City organizations suggested that while they were currently protected by multi-year general operating funding from the Department of Cultural Affairs, they could not predict whether (and by how much) those funds might be cut.

In larger institutions that are supported by endowments, the belt-tightening started months ago. One director of a medium sized art museum said his finance committee reduced the museum’s budget by 10 percent last January. Even so, he suspects government and foundation support will be down significantly. His institution isn’t alone. At a number of medium to large museums across the state, finance committees trimmed sails in advance of the storm. One Hudson Valley historic house reports that it’s established 2009 budgets anticipating a 15-percent decline, a 25-percent decline, and a worst-case-40-percent decline. At the moment they are betting on the 15-percent loss.

Museums are also feeling the pinch in personnel. One state site reported that its seasonal budget has been cut in half while a major Long Island museum is about to slash its budget for the second time in less than six months. The director reports that the upcoming reductions will mean layoffs. Upstate an Otsego County organization needs to close a 10-percent gap caused by loss in endowment and the early fall’s spike in heating oil. It reports that closing the gap isn’t likely without affecting staff salaries. Several directors in Manhattan and Upstate report that hiring freezes are already in place while others said they would enact salary reductions in order to save jobs.

Many institutions, large and small, have already felt the loss of patrons’ discretionary income. Only one museum in Albany County reported that sales in its gift shop were up while several said that spending at fund raising events was way down and patrons had to be coaxed to spend like they did only a year ago. A Brooklyn historic site director said, “Our annual gala takes place in November. If we don’t make our revised goal, that will tell us a lot. There are only so many things you can cut at a small institution.” In a few cases on Long Island and in the Lower Hudson Valley directors reported fund raising events themselves were cancelled. And no one is looking forward to annual appeals—letters asking for end-of-year-gifts—which traditionally go out during the last quarter. As one director quipped, “2008 will be a picnic compared to 2009. Our donors will hold on to the end, but last out is also last in.”

Photo:  Visitors at the Guggenheim Museum, NYC by charmante